MTSRF
Project 2.5ii.1
Best available climate change projections for the MTSRF region
Project Leader: Dr Penny Whetton, CSIRO
The best estimates and low and high ranges of climate change projections based on 23 global climate models are given as the 50th, 10th and 90th percentiles. Projections indicate that the inland areas of the MTSRF region will warm faster than the coastal areas. Under a medium emissions scenario, the best-estimate regional annual average temperature increase by 2030 is 0.8°C, with a range of uncertainty of 0.6 to 1.1°C. Higher increases are projected for 2050 and 2070. Rainfall changes show increases and decreases. The best estimate of regional average annual rainfall change for 2030 is -1%, with a range of uncertainty of -8 to +6%. Larger ranges are projected for 2050 and 2070. Percentage changes in Dry season and Transitional season 2 rainfall are greater than those for Wet season and Transitional season 1 rainfall. This project has delivered the best available climate change projections for the MTSRF region, and the results are already being used by other MTSRF projects, as well as state government agencies.
Publications
Report Series No. 62 - Suppiah, R., Watterson, I.G., Macadam, I., Collier, M.A. and Bathols, J. (2010) Climate Change Projections for the Tropical Rainforest Region of North Queensland. Final Report on MTSRF Activities, 2006-2010
Report prepared by the Climate Impacts and Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Science. This report outlines temperature and rainfall projections for the tropical rainforest region of far northern Queensland based on simulations performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report invovling twenty-three global climate models (GCMs).
Report by CSIRO researchers which describes the results of downscaling of regional climate statistics for the MTSRF, using CSIRO's Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model and Mk3 model.