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	Home / Publications / Search by MTSRF Program No. Search by MTSRF Program No. \| Program 1 \| Program 2 \| Program 3 \| Program 4 \| Program 5 \| Program 6 \| Program 7 \| Program 8 \| Program 9 \| Program 10 \| Publications Search: Program 5 'Climage Change - Understanding the Threat, Ecosystem Impacts and Mitigation' Key Publications: MTSRF Research Report Series Project 2.5i.4 Miles, R. L. et al. (2009) Assessing the socio-economic implications of climate change (coral bleaching) in the Great Barrier Reef catchment: Synthesis Report This PDF document is designed to be printed double-sided. [pdf 2.9 Mb] Program 5 Technical and Research Reports Project 2.5i.3 JCU Hughes, T. (2007) Herbivory by fishes on the Great Barrier Reef: A review of knowledge and understanding Preliminary status and trends report completed in June 2007 by C. Cvitanovic, R. J. Fox and D. R. Bellwood, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University. [pdf 266.2 kb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. (2007) Linking land-use change scenarios with predicted water quality improvements within the GBR lagoon A project progress report outlining modelling methodology that enables end-of-river values of DIN to be spatially extrapolated across the inner-shelf region of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Importantly this allows the end-of-river outcomes of modelled land-use improvement scenarios to be tested for their relevance in terms of improving inshore reef water quality. [pdf 1.8 Mb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. (2007) Metadata Inshore GBR Datasets A project progress report outlining the metadata of the inshore Great Barrier Reef datasets. [pdf 36.7 kb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. (2008) Modelling the improved resilience of inshore coral reefs to climate change due to terrestrial water quality improvements A case study from the Tully-Murray River catchment, North Queensland. This report outlines research to model the 'envelope' of future bleaching risks to inshore coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef that are under the influence of the Tully-Murray flood plume, based on a range of optimised land management actions. [pdf 801.7 kb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. (2008) Regional Scale Coral Bleaching Predictions for the Great Barrier Reef A project milestone report describing the downscaling methodology developed to enable GCM-scale scenarios of future SST to be interpreted as a regional-scale coral bleaching threat on the Great Barrier Reef Australia. [pdf 1.3 Mb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. (2009) Managing local water quality to help combat climate change impacts on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia A project update detailing work to simulate the beneficial impact of end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) reductions (10%, 30%, 50% and 70%) in raising the bleaching resistance of inshore coral reefs between Townsville and Cooktown, North Queensland. [pdf 1.9 Mb] Project 2.5i.4 CQU Miles, R. et al. (2009) Assessing the Socio-Economic Implications of Climate Change (Coral Bleaching) in the Great Barrier Reef Catchment: Synthesis Report Submitted as a component of Project 2.5i.4 January 2009 milestone report. [pdf 2.5 Mb] Project 2.5i.4 Miles, R. L. et al. (2009) Assessing the socio-economic implications of climate change (coral bleaching) in the Great Barrier Reef catchment: Synthesis Report This PDF document is designed to be printed double-sided. [pdf 2.9 Mb] Project 2.5ii.1 CSIRO Ramasamy, S. (2007) Climate Change Projections for the Tropical Rainforest Region of North Queensland Report prepared by the Climate Impacts and Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Science. This report outlines temperature and rainfall projections for the tropical rainforest region of far northern Queensland based on simulations performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report invovling twenty-three global climate models (GCMs). [pdf 722.1 kb] Project 2.5ii.1 CSIRO Thatcher, M. et al (2007) Regional climate downscaling for the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF) between 1971 and 2000 Report by CSIRO researchers which describes the results of downscaling of regional climate statistics for the MTSRF, using CSIRO's Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model and Mk3 model. [pdf 741.5 kb] Project 2.5ii.2 JCU Liddell, M. (2009) November Milestone Report Project progress report - November 2009. [pdf 228.7 kb] Program 5 Project Milestone Reports Project 1.1.5 and 2.5i.1 AIMS Fabricius, K. (2009) e-Atlas: Risk, Resilience and Response - June Milestone Report Project progress report against Project 1.1.5 and Project 2.5i.1 objectives - June 2009. [pdf 47.4 kb] Project 2.5i.1 AIMS Brinkman, R. (2010) March Milestone Report Project progress report - March 2010. Includes examples of preliminary outputs from the pilot 4 km model grid and bathymetry for the eastern Queensland coast. [pdf 2.0 Mb] Project 2.5i.1 AIMS Schiller, A. (2008) Instrument Array Summary - January 2008 Milestone Report A project progress report detailing a total of sixty-nine oceanographic instruments of which were deployed for this experiment throughout the Heron Island region. The deployments and recoveries took place during four field trip periods between the months of August 2004 and April 2006. Many instruments were positioned in two or more locations during the study. The following figures and tables describe the oceanographic instruments that were deployed for, usually, six months at a time. [pdf 2.7 Mb] Project 2.5i.2 UQ Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2009) January Milestone Report Project progress report - 31 January 2009. Includes detailed report on project results to date under three broad categories: (a) Thresholds and coral response; (b) Heritability and genetics; and (c) Diversity of naturally occurring symbiont types. Includes coral bleaching risk output reports that have been assembled from an array of satellite and in situ data, as well as selected bleaching forecast models. An example of a brief analysis of these reports is included in graphic format. [pdf 4.5 Mb] Project 2.5i.2 UQ Weeks, S. (2009) January Milestone Report A project progress report - January 2009. Project 2.5i.2 Extension (b) Implementation of Kd[par], the attenuation of photosynthetically available radiation, to the Great Barrier Reef Ecosystem (Dr Scarla Weeks et al.) [pdf 384.6 kb] Project 2.5i.2(d) JCU Congdon, B. (2009) June Milestone Report Project progress report - June 2009. Project 2.5i.2 Objective (d) Vulnerability of high tropic levels on the Great Barrier Reef (e.g. seabirds) to climate change. Species of focus include terns, shearwaters and black noddies. Sub-project funded by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. [pdf 647.5 kb] Project 2.5i.3 JCU Hughes, T. (2007) Project Milestone Report June Report prepared by James Cook University researchers which provides an overview of progress against project milestones for Year 1. [pdf 64.9 kb] Project 2.5i.3 JCU Hughes, T. (2008) February Milestone Report A project progress report - February 2008. [pdf 177.4 kb] Project 2.5i.3 JCU Hughes, T. (2009) June Milestone Report Project progress report summarising results achieved for Year 3 (2008/2009) and a plan for activities in Year 4 (2009/2010). [pdf 126.3 kb] Project 2.5i.3 JCU Hughes, T. (2009) March Milestone Report A project progress report - March 2009. [pdf 632.1 kb] Project 2.5i.3 JCU Hughes, T. (2010) March Milestone Report Project progress report, March 2010. Includes a detailed update against all six objectives of this project, as well as a summary of major publications produced by this project team to date. [pdf 543.7 kb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. (2007) November Milestone Report A project milestone report describing the methodology developed to facilitate the spatial linkage between end-of-catchment water quality scenarios, and the follow-on flood plume dilution across the GBR lagoon, the findings from a high level socio-economic and demographic characterisation of the region using ABS, OESR and other statistical sources, a present summary from workshop on the spatial linkage model and its outputs with end users and define targets based on reef outcomes (e.g. Reef Partnership and GBRMPA)and a summary of communication activities undertaken to date by the project team and a schedule of future communication activities. [pdf 43.9 kb] Project 2.5i.4 AIMS Wooldridge, S. et al. (2009) January Milestone Report A project progress report - January 2009. Includes the reports, 'Modelling the improved resilience of inshore coral reefs to climate change due to terrestrial water quality improvements - A case study from the Burdekin River catchment' (AIMS report); 'Assessing the Socio-Economic Implications of Climate Change (Coral Bleaching) in the Great Barrier Reef Catchment' (CQU report); and an overview by the CSIRO on a workshop convened to develop a conceptual model identifying key relationships between reef condition and tourism income under future coral bleaching scenarios. (These three reports are available for download as separate documents from the Project 2.5i.4 webpage). [pdf 9.8 Mb] Project 2.5i.4 CSIRO Gordon, I. (2009) June Milestone Report Project progress report on development of conceptual model that captures the relationships between coral reef condition and tour operator viability. [pdf 444.0 kb] Project 2.5i.4 CSIRO Gordon, I. et al. (2009) January Milestone Report Submitted as a component of Project 2.5i.4 January 2009 milestone report. [pdf 712.2 kb] Project 2.5ii.1 CSIRO Ramsamy, S. (2010) February Milestone Report Project progress report - February 2010. Includes prelinary simulations of changes in rainfall for quarterly periods of the year in North Queensland by the year 2090. [pdf 1.3 Mb] Project 2.5ii.2 JCU Liddell, M. (2007) Project Milestone Report June Provides an end of year report on the results of basic biophysical data analysis (fluxes of carbon, water linked to microclimate variables) to assist in understanding forest level response to climatic drivers. [pdf 671.5 kb] Project 2.5ii.2 JCU Liddell, M. (2009) June Milestone Report (Annual Report) Final project progress report for 2008/2009 (Year 3 of the project). Includes summary of activities to date and results specific to Objectives (a)-(e). [pdf 2.0 Mb] Project 2.5ii.2 JCU Liddell, M. (2009) March Milestone Report A project progress report - March 2009. [pdf 298.8 kb] Project 2.5ii.2 JCU Liddell, M. (2010) March Milestone Report A project progress report @ March 2010. [pdf 332.1 kb] Project 2.5ii.2 JCU Lidell, M. (2008) November Milestone Report A project progress report describing the seasonal fluxes of carbon and water from the Daintree rainforest in relation to climatic drivers (obj a), the physiological controls on rainforest tree productivity and water use efficiency (obj b), characterization of flowering / fruiting events in phenological monitoring program (obj d), resource related fluctuations in insect populations inhabiting leaf litter on the ground and how they relate to ecosystem productivity, and resource quantity (obj e), Plan of communication products and events for year two and a summary of communication activities undertaken to date, including minutes of meetings/workshops. [pdf 176.3 kb] Project 2.5ii.3 CSIRO Hilbert, D. (2007) Project Progress Report June Report prepared by Dr D. Hilbert, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems in meeting with MTSRF Project Milestone requirements. [pdf 100.3 kb] Project 2.5ii.4 JCU Williams, S. (2007) June Project Milestone Report A project progress report and preliminary analysis of the links between extinction proneness and ecological characteristics of species of the Wet Tropics; status report on data collected to date and a summary of communication activities undertaken to June 2007. [pdf 43.4 kb] Project 2.5ii.4 JCU Williams, S. (2007) March Project Milestone Report A project milestone report that discusses links between the ecological characteristics of species and their relative extinction proneness; a general overview of the status of the project and a summary of communication activities undertaken to date. [pdf 112.1 kb] Project 2.5ii.4 JCU Williams, S. (2007) November Milestone Report A project progress report - November 2007. [pdf 2.1 Mb] Project 2.5ii.4 JCU Williams, S. (2009) March Milestone Report A project progress report - March 2009. [pdf 94.0 kb] Project 2.5ii.4 JCU Williams, S. (2009) November Milestone Report Project progress report - November 2009. Includes summaries of (a) mapping of current species distribution of rainforest fauna for provision to research users; (b) mapping of spatial patterns of biodiversity for provision to research users; (c) completion of a case study to test the ability of species distribution models calibrated in the Wet Tropics to predict suitable environments further north on Cape York Peninsula; (d) a status report on predictive impact modelling of climate change on rainforest fauna; and (e) preliminary results on physiological tolerances of microhylid frogs and arboreal mammals. [pdf 161.2 kb] Projet 2.5i.2 UQ Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2007) November Milestone Report A project progress report - November 2007. [pdf 304.0 kb]	See also MTSRF Research Report Series Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles Books and Book Chapters Conference Abstracts and Proceedings Brochures and Booklets Newsletters and Other Publications Conference Poster Presentations Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) Technical and Transition Reports Program 5i Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles Anthony, K. R., Hoogenboom, M. O., Maynard, J. A., Grottoli, A. and Middlebrook, R. (2009) Energetics approach to predicting mortality risk from environmental stress: A case study of coral bleaching. Functional Ecology 23(3): 539-550 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-2435.2008.01531.x] Anthony, K. R. N., Kline, D. I., Diaz-Pulido, G., Dove, S. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2008) Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105(45): 17442-17446 [doi:10.1073/pnas.0804478105] Bay, L. K., Howells, E. J. and van Oppen, M. J. H. (2009) *Isolation, characterisation and cross amplification of thirteen microsatellite loci for coral endo-symbiotic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium* clade C)*. Conservation Genetics Resources* (In press) [doi:10.1007/s12686-009-9048-1] Bay, L. K., Ulstrup, K. E., Nielsen, H. B., Jarmer, H., Goffard, N., Willis, B. L., Miller, D. J. and van Oppen, M. J. H. (2009) Microarray analysis reveals transcriptional plasticity in the reef building coral Acropora millepora. Molecular Ecology 18(14): 3062-3075 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-294x.2009.04257.x] Day, T., Nagel, L., van Oppen, M. J. H. and Caley, M. J. (2008) Factors effecting the evolution of bleaching resistance in corals. The American Naturalist 171: E72-E88 [doi:10.1086/524945] Devney, C. A., Short, M. and Congdon, B. C. (2009) Sensitivity of tropical seabirds to El Niño precursors. Ecology 90(5): 1175-1183 [doi:10.1890/08-0634.1] Devney, C. A., Short, M. and Congdon, B. C. (2009) Cyclonic and anthropogenic influences on tern populations. Wildlife Research 36(5): 368-378 [doi:10.1071/WR08142] Dove, S. G., Lovell, C., Fine, M., Deckenback, J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Iglesias-Prieto, R. and Anthony, K. R. N. (2008) Host pigments: Potential facilitators of photosynthesis in coral symbioses. Plant, Cell and Environment 31(11): 1523-1533 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-3040.2008.01852.x] Erwin, C. A. and Congdon, B. C. (2007) *Day-to-day variation in sea-surface temperature reduces sooty tern Sterna fuscata* foraging success on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia*. Marine Ecology Progress Series* 331: 255-266 [doi:10.3354/meps331255] Howells, E. J., van Oppen, M. J. H. and Willis, B. L. (2009) *High genetic differentiation and cross-shelf patterns of genetic diversity among Great Barrier Reef populations of Symbiodinium.* Coral Reefs 28(1): 215-225 [doi:10.1007/s00338-008-0450-z] Kaniewska, P., Anthony, K. R. N. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2008) Variation in colony geometry modulates internal light levels in braching corals, Acropora humilis and Stylophora pistillata. Marine Biology 155(6): 649-660 [doi:10.1007/s00227-008-1061-5] Maynard, J. A., Anthony, K. R. N., Marshall, P. A. and Masiri, L. (2008) Major bleaching events can lead to increased thermal tolerance in corals. Marine Biology 155(2): 173-182 [doi:10.1007/s00227-008-1015-y] Moritz, C., Graham, C., VanDerWal, J. and Williams, S. E. (2009) Effects of quaternary climate change increases sensitivity of montane tropical diversity to future global warming. INTECOL 10th International Congress of Ecology, Brisbane, 16-21 August [Access abstract online] Sampayo, E. M., Dove, S. and Lajeunesse, T. C. (2009) *Cohesive molecular genetic data delineate species diversity in the dinoflagellate genus Symbiodinium.* Molecular Ecology 18(3): 500-519 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2008.04037.x] Schiller, A., Ridgway, K. R., Steinberg, C. R. and Oke, P. R. (2009) Dynamics of three anomalous SST events in the Coral Sea. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L06606 [doi:10.1029/2008GL036997] Smith-Kuene, C. and Dove, S. (2008) Gene expression of a green fluorescent protein homolog as a host-specific biomarker of heat stress within a reef-building coral. Marine Biotechnology 10(2): 166-180 [doi:10.1007/s10126-007-9049-6] Weeks, S. J., Anthony, K. R. N., Bakun, A., Feldman, G. C. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2008) Improved predictions of coral bleaching using seasonal baselines and higher spatial resolution. Limnology and Oceanography 53(4): 1369-1375. Program 5ii Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles Hilbert, D. W., Graham, A. and Hopkins, M. S. (2007) Glacial and interglacial refugia within a long-term rainforest refugium: The Wet Tropics Bioregion of NE Queensland, Australia. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 251(1): 104-118 [doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.02.020] Isaac, J. L., VanDerWal, J., Johnson, C. N. and Williams, S. E. (2009) Resistance and resilience: Quantifying relative extinction risk in a diverse assemblage of Australian tropical rainforest vertebrates. Diversity and Distributions 15(2): 280-288 [doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00531.x] Li, J. and Hilbert, D. W. (2008) LIVES - A new habitat modelling technique for predicting the distribution of species' occurrences using presence-only data based on limiting factor theory. Biodiversity and Conservation 17(13): 3079-3095 [doi:10.1007/s10531-007-9270-7] Li, J., Hilbert, D. W., Parker, T. and Williams, S. E. (2009) *How do species respond to climate change along an elevation gradient? A case study of the grey-headed robin (Heteromyias albispecularis). Global Change Biology* 15(1): 255-267 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01737.x] Moritz, C., Hoskin, C. J., MacKenzie, J. B., Phillips, B. L., Tonione, M., Silva, N., VanDerWal, J., Williams, S. E. and Graham, C. H. (2009) Identification and dynamics of a cryptic suture zone in tropical rainforest. Proceedings of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences 276(1660): 1235-1244 [doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.1622] Shoo, L. P., Anderson, A. and Williams, S. E. (2009) *On the isolated population of Lewin's Honeyeater (Meliphaga lewinii amphochlora) from the McIlwraith Range uplands, Cape York Peninsula, Australia: Estimates of population szie and distribution. Emu - Austral Ornithology* 109(4): 288-293 [doi:10.1071/MU08062] VanDerWal, J., Shoo, L. P., Graham, C. and Williams, S. E. (2009) Selecting pseudo-absence data fro presence-only distribution modelling: How far should you stray from what you know? Ecological Modelling 220(4): 589-594 [doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.010] VanDerWal, J., Shoo, L. P. and Williams, S. E. (2009) New approaches to understanding late Quaternary climate fluctuations and refugial dynamics in Australian wet tropical rain forests. Journal of Biogeography 36(2): 291-301 [doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.01993.x] Williams, S. E., Shoo, L. P., Isaac, J. L., Hoffman, A. A. and Langham, G. (2008) Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to cliamte change. PLoS Biology 6(12): 2621-2626 [doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060325]