Project Leader and Host Organisation

Dr Ramasamy Suppiah, CSIRO

Project Description and Objectives

For detailed descriptions of the outputs for this project for Year 4 (2009/2010) of the MTSRF Research Programme, see the Annual Research Plan.

Project 2.5ii.1 will develop a new high-resolution software tool, OzClim, for the North Queensland region to a spatial resolution of fifteen kilometers with multiple scenarios so that uncertainty in future climate change projections can be represented. It is closely linked to the equivalent project of the marine impacts program, and both projects could be considered as two parts of a single package.  The climate change projections in both projects will start from the common starting point of the global climate models but different techniques are required to provide regional detail in the two realms. There is also linkage at the level of data delivery to impact researchers. 

Key Objectives:

1. Utilise the output of global climate models to prepare an assessment of the range of likely changes in climate means relevant to tropical rainforests, e.g. mean, minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, rainfall, seasonality of rainfall, cloud base height, lapse rate and solar radiation.  Consider also extreme precipitation and winds associated with tropical cyclone occurrence.

2. Provide fine resolution detail in projected climate change for the region.  Enable an assessment to be made of how local topographical variations impact on the patterns of projected future climate change.

3. Provide climate change data tailored for use in impact assessment and for more general MTSRF communication.

Climate change simulations workshop - Simulations for CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) and the data requirements for Queensland and the wet tropical regions

The CSIRO has been delivering climate change information to stakeholders in Queensland and the tropical regions via both the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF) and the Queensland Centre for Climate Change Excellence (QCCCE).  Much of this information stems from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2007 Technical Report which represented a synthesis of data from the (CMIP3) IPCC AR4 climate models.  In partnership with the QCCCE, the CSIRO is preparing to perform some climate change simulations and make the data available for the next AR5 phase.  In addition, it is expected the CSIRO will be looking at new methods for synthesising the latest climate change information when it becomes available.  By then, it is expected that much more advice may be generated about the risks posed by tropical cyclones, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, floods and extreme rainfall events, and droughts - all critical to the North Queensland region.

A climate change modelling and research directions workshop was held in Port Douglas, North Queensland, 20-21 July 2009.  The aim of the workshop was to scope the climate science priorities and challenges relevant to tropical Queensland and to enhance collaboration and delivery of climate change information required for effective planning and management of the enviornmental assets of North Queensland.

Sixteen presentations were given by climate modelling experts, with topics ranging from the impacts of aerosols on tropical Australian climate to dynamic donwscaling of climate simulations.  Presentations were followed by a facilitated discussion between researchers, climate modellers and natural resource managers to identify critical research prirorities and modelling requirements for management.

Outcomes from the workshop form a valuable contribution to the RRRC's extensive consultation process in the review of current environmental research priorities for North Queensland.