Project 2.5i.2 - Early warning and assessment system for thermal stress on the Great Barrier Reef

Project Leader:  Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, The University of Queensland

Project 2.5i.2 aims to improve our detection and projection capabilities of coral bleaching risks in the future by developing new models to predict potential acclimatisation and the role of historical adaptation and interactions between key environmental variables.  These models will be calibrated using controlled laboratory and raceway experiments in which the responses of a range of coral species to combinations of temperature, light and water quality will be determined.  These laboratory experiments will be complemented with detailed analyses of how thermal history, bleaching severity and recovery interact in order to better understand the associated risks of coral mortality.  Satellite data will be analysed to determine the role of mesoscale oceanographic variability in mass coral bleaching patterns.  Outputs from this Project will be incorporated into projection models of how reefs might change as seas increase in temperature.